Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.027387 0.031185 0.035344 0.040240 0.045851 0.052085 0.059548
2025-01-12 0.020966 0.025990 0.031994 0.039716 0.049413 0.061221 0.076744
2025-01-19 0.017015 0.022311 0.029020 0.038177 0.050404 0.066243 0.088445
2025-01-26 0.015337 0.021069 0.028689 0.039617 0.054981 0.075953 0.106987
2025-02-02 0.014049 0.020090 0.028464 0.041001 0.059438 0.085782 0.126675
2025-02-09 0.013003 0.019272 0.028292 0.042326 0.063819 0.095823 0.147705
2025-02-16 0.011720 0.017933 0.027174 0.042059 0.065697 0.102230 0.163825
2025-02-23 0.010762 0.016960 0.026469 0.042284 0.068268 0.109849 0.182593
2025-03-02 0.009770 0.015819 0.025367 0.041723 0.069452 0.115283 0.198257
2025-03-09 0.009190 0.015273 0.025140 0.042534 0.072932 0.124775 0.221828
2025-03-16 0.008445 0.014375 0.024239 0.042094 0.074186 0.130535 0.239357
2025-03-23 0.008070 0.014065 0.024287 0.043280 0.078385 0.141833 0.268232
2025-03-30 0.007278 0.012969 0.022903 0.041819 0.077716 0.144396 0.281208
2025-04-06 0.006689 0.012183 0.021995 0.041142 0.078436 0.149623 0.300033
2025-04-13 0.006038 0.011221 0.020678 0.039553 0.077222 0.150970 0.311126
2025-04-20 0.005860 0.011126 0.020954 0.041047 0.082198 0.164975 0.350105
2025-04-27 0.005685 0.011020 0.021194 0.042484 0.087191 0.179521 0.392012
2025-05-04 0.005514 0.010902 0.021397 0.043859 0.092189 0.194585 0.436911
2025-05-11 0.005175 0.010419 0.020832 0.043581 0.093634 0.202198 0.465811
2025-05-18 0.004917 0.010079 0.020524 0.043815 0.096204 0.212520 0.502287
2025-05-25 0.004601 0.009591 0.019870 0.043233 0.096891 0.218675 0.529503
2025-06-01 0.004440 0.009418 0.019862 0.044074 0.100897 0.232850 0.578236
2025-06-08 0.004178 0.009004 0.019303 0.043618 0.101828 0.239894 0.609822